Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.8% โ LOW
(-60.0% vs 30d avg of 79.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $495 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $451.63 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.89 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $495 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$2,948 (6.3%) on $46,552 risked, vs +$4,337 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $495. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $495 by Aug 21
+$2,948
+6.3% on $46,552 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,552
Put floors you at $430
Break-even
$465.52
+3.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.39 / -15.56 / 67.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$3,579 | -$3,641 | -$3,648 | -$3,552 |
| $384 (-15%) | -$3,161 | -$3,354 | -$3,535 | -$3,552 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$2,446 | -$2,757 | -$3,144 | -$3,552 |
| $429 (-5%) | -$1,391 | -$1,762 | -$2,260 | -$3,552 |
| $443 (-2%) | -$594 | -$966 | -$1,456 | -$2,292 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$360 | -$816 | -$1,389 |
| $461 (+2%) | +$640 | +$301 | -$106 | -$486 |
| $474 (+5%) | +$1,677 | +$1,382 | +$1,063 | +$869 |
| $495 (+10%) โ target | +$3,416 | +$3,198 | +$3,008 | +$2,948 |
| $519 (+15%) | +$5,619 | +$5,483 | +$5,397 | +$5,385 |
| $542 (+20%) | +$7,761 | +$7,682 | +$7,646 | +$7,644 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.