Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.8% โ LOW
(-60.0% vs 30d avg of 79.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $520 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $450 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.6 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $450 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.1 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $520 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns +$2,130 (43.7%) on $4,870 risked, vs +$6,837 (15.1%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $520. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $520 by Aug 21
+$2,130
+43.7% on $4,870 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,870
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$498.70
+10.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.32 / -39.08 / 148.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | +$3,960 | +$3,870 | +$3,886 | +$4,000 |
| $384 (-15%) | +$2,203 | +$1,894 | +$1,692 | +$1,741 |
| $406 (-10%) | +$900 | +$326 | -$258 | -$517 |
| $429 (-5%) | +$189 | -$607 | -$1,588 | -$2,775 |
| $443 (-2%) | +$77 | -$797 | -$1,924 | -$4,130 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | +$134 | -$763 | -$1,928 | -$4,707 |
| $461 (+2%) | +$294 | -$605 | -$1,757 | -$3,804 |
| $474 (+5%) | +$713 | -$149 | -$1,204 | -$2,449 |
| $497 (+10%) | +$1,832 | +$1,103 | +$326 | -$191 |
| $520 (+15%) โ target | +$3,414 | +$2,856 | +$2,364 | +$2,130 |
| $542 (+20%) | +$5,191 | +$4,782 | +$4,477 | +$4,326 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.