Target Price Playground
WDC
$469.05
๐ข
WDC IV: 76.8% โ LOW
(-36.4% vs 30d avg of 120.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $530 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $470 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $54.02 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $510 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.45 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $530 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$2,543 (174.5%) on $1,457 risked, vs +$6,095 (13.0%) for 100 shares on $46,905. Options give 13.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $530. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $530 by Oct 16
+$2,543
+174.5% on $1,457 risked
Max Profit
+$2,543
If the stock โฅ $510 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,457
Net debit
Break-even
$484.57
+3.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.77 / -0.42 / -3.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $375 (-20%) | -$827 | -$969 | -$1,221 | -$1,457 |
| $399 (-15%) | -$618 | -$747 | -$1,016 | -$1,457 |
| $422 (-10%) | -$388 | -$488 | -$727 | -$1,457 |
| $446 (-5%) | -$145 | -$203 | -$367 | -$1,457 |
| $460 (-2%) | +$4 | -$24 | -$125 | -$1,457 |
| $469 (0%) โ spot | +$104 | +$97 | +$42 | -$1,457 |
| $478 (+2%) | +$204 | +$218 | +$211 | -$614 |
| $493 (+5%) | +$352 | +$398 | +$466 | +$793 |
| $516 (+10%) | +$593 | +$690 | +$877 | +$2,543 |
| $530 (+13%) โ target | +$731 | +$857 | +$1,105 | +$2,543 |
| $539 (+15%) | +$821 | +$965 | +$1,249 | +$2,543 |
| $563 (+20%) | +$1,034 | +$1,216 | +$1,567 | +$2,543 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.