Target Price Playground
WDC
$746.23
๐ข
WDC IV: 89.7% โ LOW
(-22.3% vs 30d avg of 115.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $660 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $750 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $126.14 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $690 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $93.85 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $660 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$2,771 (85.8%) on $3,229 risked, vs $-8,623 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $74,623. Options give 7.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $660. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $660 by Aug 21
+$2,771
+85.8% on $3,229 risked
Max Profit
+$2,771
If the stock โค $690 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,229
Net debit
Break-even
$717.71
-3.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-7.52 / -7.44 / 5.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $597 (-20%) | +$1,199 | +$1,350 | +$1,686 | +$2,771 |
| $634 (-15%) | +$885 | +$979 | +$1,222 | +$2,771 |
| $660 (-12%) โ target | +$665 | +$714 | +$868 | +$2,771 |
| $672 (-10%) | +$565 | +$593 | +$703 | +$2,771 |
| $709 (-5%) | +$247 | +$203 | +$161 | +$879 |
| $731 (-2%) | +$60 | -$27 | -$162 | -$1,360 |
| $746 (0%) โ spot | -$63 | -$178 | -$374 | -$2,852 |
| $761 (+2%) | -$185 | -$326 | -$580 | -$3,229 |
| $784 (+5%) | -$362 | -$542 | -$876 | -$3,229 |
| $821 (+10%) | -$645 | -$884 | -$1,330 | -$3,229 |
| $858 (+15%) | -$911 | -$1,197 | -$1,724 | -$3,229 |
| $895 (+20%) | -$1,157 | -$1,481 | -$2,057 | -$3,229 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.