Target Price Playground
WDC
$746.23
๐ข
WDC IV: 89.7% โ LOW
(-22.3% vs 30d avg of 115.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $660 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $750 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $126.14 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $660 by Aug 21: the long put returns $-3,614 (-28.7%) on $12,614 risked, vs $-8,623 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $74,623. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $660. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $660 by Aug 21
$-3,614
-28.7% on $12,614 risked
Max Profit
+$62,386
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$12,614
Premium paid
Break-even
$623.86
-16.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-41.85 / -95.48 / 120.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $597 (-20%) | +$6,625 | +$5,281 | +$3,758 | +$2,688 |
| $634 (-15%) | +$4,324 | +$2,771 | +$879 | -$1,044 |
| $660 (-12%) โ target | +$2,868 | +$1,193 | -$920 | -$3,614 |
| $672 (-10%) | +$2,244 | +$520 | -$1,681 | -$4,775 |
| $709 (-5%) | +$377 | -$1,474 | -$3,901 | -$8,506 |
| $731 (-2%) | -$646 | -$2,552 | -$5,068 | -$10,745 |
| $746 (0%) โ spot | -$1,288 | -$3,222 | -$5,779 | -$12,237 |
| $761 (+2%) | -$1,900 | -$3,855 | -$6,438 | -$12,614 |
| $784 (+5%) | -$2,765 | -$4,738 | -$7,333 | -$12,614 |
| $821 (+10%) | -$4,068 | -$6,042 | -$8,590 | -$12,614 |
| $858 (+15%) | -$5,213 | -$7,154 | -$9,587 | -$12,614 |
| $895 (+20%) | -$6,215 | -$8,096 | -$10,365 | -$12,614 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.