Target Price Playground
WDC
$746.23
๐ข
WDC IV: 90.1% โ LOW
(-22.7% vs 30d avg of 116.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $820 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $746.23 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $710 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $104.5 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $820 by Aug 21: the protective put returns $-3,073 (-3.6%) on $85,073 risked, vs +$7,377 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $74,623. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $820. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $820 by Aug 21
$-3,073
-3.6% on $85,073 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$14,073
Put floors you at $710
Break-even
$850.73
+14.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.52 / -93.74 / 117.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $597 (-20%) | -$9,224 | -$10,657 | -$12,389 | -$14,073 |
| $634 (-15%) | -$7,595 | -$9,203 | -$11,250 | -$14,073 |
| $672 (-10%) | -$5,740 | -$7,475 | -$9,750 | -$14,073 |
| $709 (-5%) | -$3,669 | -$5,486 | -$7,887 | -$14,073 |
| $731 (-2%) | -$2,330 | -$4,172 | -$6,602 | -$11,942 |
| $746 (0%) โ spot | -$1,399 | -$3,250 | -$5,679 | -$10,450 |
| $761 (+2%) | -$439 | -$2,292 | -$4,707 | -$8,958 |
| $784 (+5%) | +$1,055 | -$791 | -$3,160 | -$6,719 |
| $820 (+10%) โ target | +$3,613 | +$1,806 | -$437 | -$3,073 |
| $858 (+15%) | +$6,442 | +$4,705 | +$2,641 | +$743 |
| $895 (+20%) | +$9,342 | +$7,694 | +$5,835 | +$4,475 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.