Target Price Playground
WMT
$113.90
๐ข
WMT IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-39.6% vs 30d avg of 45.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $100 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $115 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.73 ยท ฮ -0.5
SHORT PUT ยท $105 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.97 ยท ฮ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $100 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$624 (166.0%) on $376 risked, vs $-1,390 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $11,390. Options give 13.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $100. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WMT hits $100 by Sep 18
+$624
+166.0% on $376 risked
Max Profit
+$624
If the stock โค $105 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$376
Net debit
Break-even
$111.24
-2.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-27.21 / -0.68 / 3.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $91 (-20%) | +$541 | +$577 | +$613 | +$624 |
| $97 (-15%) | +$452 | +$499 | +$568 | +$624 |
| $100 (-12%) โ target | +$383 | +$428 | +$507 | +$624 |
| $103 (-10%) | +$322 | +$361 | +$434 | +$624 |
| $108 (-5%) | +$168 | +$180 | +$203 | +$304 |
| $112 (-2%) | +$74 | +$66 | +$47 | -$38 |
| $114 (0%) โ spot | +$14 | -$6 | -$49 | -$266 |
| $116 (+2%) | -$42 | -$72 | -$134 | -$376 |
| $120 (+5%) | -$119 | -$158 | -$233 | -$376 |
| $125 (+10%) | -$219 | -$262 | -$327 | -$376 |
| $131 (+15%) | -$287 | -$323 | -$363 | -$376 |
| $137 (+20%) | -$329 | -$354 | -$373 | -$376 |
Uses WMT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.