Target Price Playground
WMT
$113.90
๐ข
WMT IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-39.6% vs 30d avg of 45.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $113.9 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $110 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.42 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $125 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$768 (6.5%) on $11,732 risked, vs +$1,110 (9.7%) for 100 shares on $11,390. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WMT hits $125 by Sep 18
+$768
+6.5% on $11,732 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$732
Put floors you at $110
Break-even
$117.32
+3.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.89 / -3.45 / 19.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $91 (-20%) | -$778 | -$777 | -$762 | -$732 |
| $97 (-15%) | -$700 | -$728 | -$748 | -$732 |
| $103 (-10%) | -$550 | -$611 | -$685 | -$732 |
| $108 (-5%) | -$313 | -$394 | -$509 | -$732 |
| $112 (-2%) | -$125 | -$210 | -$329 | -$570 |
| $114 (0%) โ spot | +$18 | -$65 | -$179 | -$342 |
| $116 (+2%) | +$174 | +$95 | -$8 | -$114 |
| $120 (+5%) | +$430 | +$361 | +$280 | +$228 |
| $125 (+10%) โ target | +$878 | +$828 | +$782 | +$768 |
| $131 (+15%) | +$1,418 | +$1,388 | +$1,369 | +$1,366 |
| $137 (+20%) | +$1,960 | +$1,944 | +$1,936 | +$1,936 |
Uses WMT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.