AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$152.28
5.40 (3.68%)
â˛
5d:
-4.7%
30d:
+7.15%
90d:
-28.97%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 08, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AVAV is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 14.0% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AVAV is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 14.0% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.58
Based on -27.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $152.28, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $147.03 to $181.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 91.7) compared to its historical average (62.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 14.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $144.55, while resistance sits at $207.83. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $225.77 (+48.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $144.55, while resistance sits at $207.83. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $225.77 (+48.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$147.03 -
$181.02
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 48.3% below Wall St target ($225.77)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 14.0% growth expectation is conservative given 176% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$147.03 -
$181.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.55
Resistance Level
$207.83
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
91.70
Wall Street Target
$225.77
(+48.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
133.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-13.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+14.0% premium
PE vs Historical
91.7 vs 62.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+14.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$173.60
(+14%)
2-Year Target
$197.90
(+30%)
3-Year Target
$225.61
(+48%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 92â62)
PE COMPRESSION
$152.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 91.7, Growth: -58.5%)
$111.01
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -58.5%)
$24.30
(-84%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -58.5%)
$20.65
(-86%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 27, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-04-15
Brian Charles Shackley
SELL
200 shares
2026-03-16
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-03-16
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