Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.51
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: F is currently trading at $13.88, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.86 to $14.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 430.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, F is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: F scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.73 (+13.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$13.86 -
$14.59
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.73)
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.86 -
$14.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level$13.76
Resistance Level$14.55
Current TrendStrong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)7.25
Wall Street Target
$15.73
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)-3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)430.8%
Profit Margin-3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.57
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$13.28
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$12.98
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$13.96
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 2.5%)
$41.31
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 2.5%)
$14.93
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 2.5%)
$12.69
(-9%)
💡Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$14.92
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
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Ford Motor Co. manufactures automobiles under its Ford and Lincoln brands. In March 2022, the company announced that it will run its combustion engine business, Ford Blue, and its BEV business, Ford Model e, as separate businesses but still all under Ford Motor. The company has nearly 13% market share in the United States, about 10% share in the UK, and under 2% share in China including unconsolidated affiliates. Sales in the US made up about 68% of 2024 total company revenue. Ford has about 171,000 employees, including about 56,500 UAW employees, and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.
