NIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NIO - NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$5.05
0.03 (0.60%)
▲
5d:
-3.07%
30d:
-9.66%
90d:
-7.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.06
28.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NIO is currently trading at $5.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.15 to $5.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.0) compared to its historical average (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NIO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.22 (+43.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NIO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.22 (+43.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.15 -
$5.85
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NIO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.1% below Wall St target ($7.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.15 -
$5.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.94
Resistance Level
$5.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.01
Wall Street Target
$7.23
(+43.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
112.2%
Profit Margin
-9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 5.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.82
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.60
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$4.38
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$5.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 133.9%)
$74.04
(+1366%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 133.9%)
$17.04
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 133.9%)
$14.49
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$5.84
(+15.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NIO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NIO price and gamma walls.
