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Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSLA - Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES
$358.08
1.50 (0.42%) ▲
5d: -2.65%
30d: +5.53%
90d: -11.51%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $328.58 · last confirmed Sep 15, 2026

Strength: 7.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: TSLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.64
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.25
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSLA is currently trading at $358.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $339.80 to $364.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 165.9) is in line with its historical norms (161.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $349.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: TSLA scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $339.80 - $364.45
Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 48.6%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($390.09)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with 25.5% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $339.80 - $364.45
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $349.92
Resistance Level $384.04
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Sep 16, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 165.89
Wall Street Target $390.09 (+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 25.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -3.0%
Profit Margin 3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History +1.0% premium
PE vs Historical 165.9 vs 161.2 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $361.66 (+1%)
2-Year Target $365.28 (+2%)
3-Year Target $368.93 (+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 166→161) PE COMPRESSION $358.51 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 165.9, Growth: 22.0%) $650.82 (+82%)
Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 22.0%) $79.21 (-78%)
Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 22.0%) $67.33 (-81%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 149.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.40
Bull Case $432.38 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 156.7
Base Case $358.08 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 149.3
Bear Case $273.93 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 134.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 17, 2026 12:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is TSLA showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kathleen Wilson-Thompson SELL 25809 shares 2026-03-30
Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

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