TSLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSLA - Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES
$362.86
17.73 (5.14%) ▲
5d: +6.02%
30d: +13.5%
90d: -13.16%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $328.58 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: TSLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.60
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.84
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSLA is currently trading at $362.86, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $313.19 to $371.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 161.4) is in line with its historical norms (160.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $366.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: TSLA scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $395.34 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $313.19 - $371.83
Company Quality Score 42/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 48.6%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($395.34)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with 25.5% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $313.19 - $371.83
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $323.64
Resistance Level $366.50
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 161.43
Wall Street Target $395.34 (+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 25.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -3.0%
Profit Margin 3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.1% premium
PE vs Historical 161.4 vs 160.8 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $351.47 (+0%)
2-Year Target $351.82 (+0%)
3-Year Target $352.17 (+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 161→161) PE COMPRESSION $350.79 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 161.4, Growth: 22.1%) $639.93 (+82%)
Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 22.1%) $79.56 (-77%)
Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 22.1%) $67.62 (-81%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (175x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (161x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 175.44 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.07
Bull Case $438.15 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 184.2
Base Case $362.86 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 175.4
Bear Case $277.59 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 157.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
đŸ”Ĩ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kathleen Wilson-Thompson SELL 25809 shares 2026-03-30
Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. SELL 2026-03-13

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