LI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LI - Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares
$12.74
-0.09 (-0.66%)
▼
5d:
-11.44%
30d:
-21.39%
90d:
-25.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LI is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LI is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.58
46.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LI is currently trading at $12.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.57 to $16.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.8) compared to its historical average (2.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.57 -
$16.17
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.3% below Wall St target ($18.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.57 -
$16.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.82
Resistance Level
$14.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.84
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+44.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.8%
Profit Margin
-1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 2.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.54
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.38
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.35
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$14.21
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1895.4%)
$511.89
(+3893%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.8, Growth: 1895.4%)
$43.27
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 1895.4%)
$36.78
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.8 to 2.8
Stabilization Target:
$19.50
(+52.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LI price and gamma walls.
