LI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LI - Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares
$12.18
0.08 (0.66%)
▲
5d:
+1.33%
30d:
-11.03%
90d:
-36.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.73
46.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LI is currently trading at $12.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.93 to $13.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.8) compared to its historical average (2.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.43 (+51.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.43 (+51.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.93 -
$13.94
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.3% below Wall St target ($18.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.93 -
$13.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.65
Resistance Level
$12.39
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.75
Wall Street Target
$18.43
(+51.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.8%
Profit Margin
-1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 2.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.87
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.88
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$13.71
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1895.4%)
$511.89
(+4103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 1895.4%)
$41.11
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.5, Growth: 1895.4%)
$34.94
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.7 to 2.7
Stabilization Target:
$18.80
(+54.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+54.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced LI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LI price and gamma walls.
