Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.51
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: F is currently trading at $14.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.90 to $14.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 430.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, F is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.90 -
$14.61
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding F? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
Ford Motor Co. manufactures automobiles under its Ford and Lincoln brands. In March 2022, the company announced that it will run its combustion engine business, Ford Blue, and its BEV business, Ford Model e, as separate businesses but still all under Ford Motor. The company has nearly 13% market share in the United States, about 10% share in the UK, and under 2% share in China including unconsolidated affiliates. Sales in the US made up about 68% of 2024 total company revenue. Ford has about 171,000 employees, including about 56,500 UAW employees, and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.
