GDEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GDEV - GDEV Inc. Ordinary Shares
$13.48
0.25 (1.89%)
▲
5d:
+10.4%
30d:
+11.04%
90d:
-11.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GDEV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GDEV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.13
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.43
39.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GDEV is currently trading at $13.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.82 to $12.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.6) compared to its historical average (4.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 67.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GDEV scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+419.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GDEV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GDEV scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.00 (+419.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.82 -
$12.92
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 419.3% below Wall St target ($70.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.82 -
$12.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.70
Resistance Level
$13.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.59
Wall Street Target
$70.00
(+419.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
67.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.6 vs 4.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.13
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.92
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.83
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$15.57
(+16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.4%)
$174.98
(+1198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.6, Growth: 18.4%)
$22.38
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.2, Growth: 18.4%)
$19.02
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (4x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 3.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.77
Bull Case
$20.11
(+49%)
Analyst growth 38.2%, PE expands to 3.9
Base Case
$18.28
(+36%)
Market implied 38.2%, PE stable at 3.5
Bear Case
$9.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.6 to 4.1
Stabilization Target:
$21.36
(+58.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+58.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 10, 2026 12:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GDEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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