HERITAGE INSURANCE (HRTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$35.77
-0.84 (-2.29%)
▼
5d:
+2.7%
30d:
+0.99%
90d:
+30.4%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRTG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRTG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.70
Based on 0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $35.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.51 to $35.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (6.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.86, while resistance sits at $37.30.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.86, while resistance sits at $37.30.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.51 -
$35.48
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.51 -
$35.48
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.86
Resistance Level
$37.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.88
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 6.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.52
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$39.36
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$41.29
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.01
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -3.3%)
$93.51
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: -3.3%)
$32.39
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: -3.3%)
$27.53
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.01
Bull Case
$29.87
(-17%)
Analyst growth -25.8%, PE expands to 5.7
Base Case
$27.16
(-24%)
Market implied -25.8%, PE stable at 5.2
Bear Case
$24.89
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 18, 2026 4:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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