HRTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$23.27
0.10 (0.43%)
▲
5d:
+4.26%
30d:
+0.52%
90d:
-12.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRTG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRTG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.81
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $23.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.61 to $23.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.61 -
$23.20
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.4% below Wall St target ($31.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.61 -
$23.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.48
Resistance Level
$22.88
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.08
Wall Street Target
$31.50
(+35.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
23.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 5.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.32
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$21.40
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$20.52
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$23.45
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$126.69
(+444%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$29.53
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 8.3%)
$25.10
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$17.92
(-23%)
Analyst growth -29.7%, PE expands to 3.9
Base Case
$16.29
(-30%)
Market implied -29.7%, PE stable at 3.6
Bear Case
$15.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$26.58
(+14.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 20, 2026 2:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-04-20
Timothy Moura
SELL
24769 shares
2026-04-02
Sharon Binnun
SELL
9200 shares
2026-04-01
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