KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$92.99
0.16 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
-4.28%
90d:
+4.87%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KSPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KSPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$200756.62
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$124654.07
99.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $92.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.90 to $102.87. Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.21 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.21 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$92.90 -
$102.87
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($107.21)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 13% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$92.90 -
$102.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.59
Resistance Level
$96.74
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.01
Wall Street Target
$107.21
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.92
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$79.39
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$73.36
(-21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.4%)
$192161.66
(+206548%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$135.71
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$115.35
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.91
Bull Case
$204.23
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$185.66
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$63.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 3:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KSPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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