KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$98.29
2.93 (3.07%)
▲
5d:
+6.62%
30d:
+10.2%
90d:
+13.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KSPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KSPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$215011.43
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$133505.18
99.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $98.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.67 to $92.28. Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$86.67 -
$92.28
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($98.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.67 -
$92.28
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.68
Resistance Level
$98.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.01
Wall Street Target
$98.62
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.83
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$84.62
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$79.71
(-16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.1%)
$211834.68
(+222042%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 16.1%)
$149.36
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 16.1%)
$126.96
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.53
Bull Case
$206.80
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$188.00
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$63.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 12, 2026 12:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KSPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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