NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6396.27
30.82 (0.48%)
â˛
5d:
+0.59%
30d:
+1.71%
90d:
+4.77%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NVR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NVR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9980.37
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6197.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6396.27, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6254.11 to $6412.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $6217.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $6217.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$6254.11 -
$6412.78
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6782.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6254.11 -
$6412.78
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6217.21
Resistance Level
$6526.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.54
Wall Street Target
$6782.00
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.6%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6357.89
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$6319.75
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$6281.83
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â16)
$6387.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$12236.74
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 14.0%)
$9474.25
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 14.0%)
$8053.11
(+26%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $384.47
Bull Case
$7496.51
(+17%)
Analyst growth 7.1%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$6815.01
(+7%)
Market implied 7.1%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$4328.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$6503.66
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 30, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
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