NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6643.73
-169.67 (-2.49%)
▼
5d:
-1.79%
30d:
+8.53%
90d:
+0.82%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NVR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10811.60
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6713.16
1.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6643.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6128.98 to $6632.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6447.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6447.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6128.98 -
$6632.77
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7132.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6128.98 -
$6632.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5946.16
Resistance Level
$6447.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.82
Wall Street Target
$7132.00
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.5%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6630.44
(0%)
2-Year Target
$6617.18
(0%)
3-Year Target
$6603.95
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$6638.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$14416.60
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$10469.14
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 16.4%)
$8898.77
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $409.26
Bull Case
$7692.42
(+16%)
Analyst growth 2.6%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$6993.11
(+5%)
Market implied 2.6%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$4633.11
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$6678.87
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 01, 2026 9:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Susan Williamson Ross
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-13
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