NVR (NVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6018.95
226.32 (3.91%)
â˛
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
-2.2%
90d:
-2.08%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NVR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NVR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6953.22
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4317.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6018.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5828.56 to $6186.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6118.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6118.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5828.56 -
$6186.38
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6262.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with -8.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5828.56 -
$6186.38
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5550.00
Resistance Level
$6118.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.98
Wall Street Target
$6262.00
(+4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6175.44
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$6336.00
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$6500.74
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$6012.05
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.1%)
$8170.79
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 5.1%)
$6984.33
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$5936.68
(-1%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $361.76
Bull Case
$6244.97
(+4%)
Analyst growth -2.0%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case
$5677.24
(-6%)
Market implied -2.0%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$3939.00
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 29, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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