PCTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$154.60
-1.42 (-0.91%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.68%
30d:
+7.87%
90d:
+37.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PCTY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.3% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PCTY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.3% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.86
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $154.60, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.23 to $155.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.0) compared to its historical average (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $149.27, while resistance sits at $161.93.
Market Sentiment: PCTY scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.00 (+10.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $149.27, while resistance sits at $161.93.
Market Sentiment: PCTY scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.00 (+10.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$141.23 -
$155.18
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($172.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.3% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$141.23 -
$155.18
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$149.27
Resistance Level
$161.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.96
Wall Street Target
$172.00
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.6%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.3% premium
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 15.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.85
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$176.30
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$187.40
(+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â15)
PE COMPRESSION
$156.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$216.43
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 7.4%)
$193.40
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 7.4%)
$161.52
(+4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.93
Bull Case
$310.54
(+99%)
Analyst growth 76.2%, PE expands to 35.8
Base Case
$282.31
(+81%)
Market implied 76.2%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$108.95
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 02, 2026 4:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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