PCTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$160.22
2.29 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
+5.1%
30d:
+16.19%
90d:
+30.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$170.72
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $160.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.82 to $154.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PCTY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PCTY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$138.82 -
$154.85
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($172.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.3% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$138.82 -
$154.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$146.36
Resistance Level
$160.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.44
Wall Street Target
$172.00
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.6%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 14.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$171.92
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$184.47
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$197.93
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$159.90
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$216.43
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$198.60
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$160.44
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.91
Bull Case
$307.35
(+92%)
Analyst growth 76.9%, PE expands to 35.4
Base Case
$279.41
(+74%)
Market implied 76.9%, PE stable at 32.2
Bear Case
$107.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 01, 2026 9:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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