Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 42.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.1 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $290 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.33 ยท ฮ -0.15
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $280 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$1,823 (269.3%) on $677 risked, vs $-3,685 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $31,685. Options give 23.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (45 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $280 by Oct 16
+$1,823
+269.3% on $677 risked
Max Profit
+$1,823
If the stock โค $290 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$677
Net debit
Break-even
$308.23
-2.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-29.32 / -3.67 / 16.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 16 | Oct 1 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | +$1,712 | +$1,773 | +$1,814 | +$1,823 |
| $269 (-15%) | +$1,500 | +$1,611 | +$1,747 | +$1,823 |
| $280 (-12%) โ target | +$1,256 | +$1,372 | +$1,559 | +$1,823 |
| $285 (-10%) | +$1,111 | +$1,214 | +$1,397 | +$1,823 |
| $301 (-5%) | +$604 | +$618 | +$642 | +$722 |
| $311 (-2%) | +$298 | +$250 | +$149 | -$228 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$111 | +$30 | -$126 | -$677 |
| $323 (+2%) | -$56 | -$157 | -$336 | -$677 |
| $333 (+5%) | -$261 | -$371 | -$533 | -$677 |
| $349 (+10%) | -$488 | -$572 | -$654 | -$677 |
| $364 (+15%) | -$602 | -$648 | -$675 | -$677 |
| $380 (+20%) | -$651 | -$670 | -$677 | -$677 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.