Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 42.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $316.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $340 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.35 ยท ฮ 0.23
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $340 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$2,650 (8.5%) on $31,350 risked, vs +$2,315 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $31,685. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (45 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $340 by Oct 16
+$2,650
+8.5% on $31,350 risked
Max Profit
+$2,650
If the stock โฅ $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$31,350
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$313.50
-1.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
76.99 / 9.56 / -32.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 16 | Oct 1 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | -$6,003 | -$6,002 | -$6,002 | -$6,002 |
| $269 (-15%) | -$4,427 | -$4,419 | -$4,418 | -$4,418 |
| $285 (-10%) | -$2,881 | -$2,846 | -$2,833 | -$2,833 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$1,422 | -$1,324 | -$1,259 | -$1,249 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$626 | -$475 | -$342 | -$299 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | -$140 | +$48 | +$238 | +$335 |
| $323 (+2%) | +$302 | +$524 | +$774 | +$969 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$877 | +$1,136 | +$1,457 | +$1,919 |
| $340 (+7%) โ target | +$1,245 | +$1,516 | +$1,861 | +$2,650 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$1,593 | +$1,861 | +$2,193 | +$2,650 |
| $364 (+15%) | +$2,033 | +$2,257 | +$2,492 | +$2,650 |
| $380 (+20%) | +$2,272 | +$2,434 | +$2,572 | +$2,650 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.