Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 42.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.1 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $280 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$2,590 (284.6%) on $910 risked, vs $-3,685 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $31,685. Options give 24.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (45 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $280 by Oct 16
+$2,590
+284.6% on $910 risked
Max Profit
+$30,590
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$910
Premium paid
Break-even
$305.90
-3.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.89 / -10.55 / 44.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 16 | Oct 1 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | +$5,082 | +$5,128 | +$5,184 | +$5,242 |
| $269 (-15%) | +$3,555 | +$3,565 | +$3,601 | +$3,658 |
| $280 (-12%) โ target | +$2,590 | +$2,552 | +$2,543 | +$2,590 |
| $285 (-10%) | +$2,154 | +$2,086 | +$2,042 | +$2,073 |
| $301 (-5%) | +$987 | +$833 | +$645 | +$489 |
| $311 (-2%) | +$437 | +$250 | -$0 | -$461 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$135 | -$59 | -$321 | -$910 |
| $323 (+2%) | -$115 | -$305 | -$553 | -$910 |
| $333 (+5%) | -$401 | -$568 | -$762 | -$910 |
| $349 (+10%) | -$692 | -$798 | -$886 | -$910 |
| $364 (+15%) | -$827 | -$880 | -$908 | -$910 |
| $380 (+20%) | -$882 | -$903 | -$910 | -$910 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.