Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.3% vs 30d avg of 42.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.85 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $340 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.35 ยท ฮ 0.23
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $355 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$1,550 (163.2%) on $950 risked, vs +$3,815 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $31,685. Options give 13.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (45 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $355 by Oct 16
+$1,550
+163.2% on $950 risked
Max Profit
+$1,550
If the stock โฅ $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$950
Net debit
Break-even
$324.50
+2.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
21%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
33.44 / -3.96 / 12.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 16 | Oct 1 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | -$937 | -$948 | -$950 | -$950 |
| $269 (-15%) | -$888 | -$928 | -$949 | -$950 |
| $285 (-10%) | -$743 | -$833 | -$923 | -$950 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$450 | -$565 | -$746 | -$950 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$205 | -$299 | -$475 | -$950 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | -$21 | -$85 | -$215 | -$765 |
| $323 (+2%) | +$172 | +$145 | +$89 | -$131 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$460 | +$494 | +$563 | +$819 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$886 | +$990 | +$1,175 | +$1,550 |
| $355 (+12%) โ target | +$1,026 | +$1,141 | +$1,324 | +$1,550 |
| $364 (+15%) | +$1,191 | +$1,304 | +$1,453 | +$1,550 |
| $380 (+20%) | +$1,375 | +$1,457 | +$1,530 | +$1,550 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.