Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.3% vs 30d avg of 42.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $300 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.54 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $300 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.05 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $300 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$853 (89.9%) on $949 risked, vs $-1,685 (-5.3%) for 100 shares on $31,685. Options give 17.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (45 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $300 by Oct 16
+$853
+89.9% on $949 risked
Max Profit
+$838
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$949
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$314.56
-0.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-19.88 / 0.6 / 21.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 16 | Oct 1 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | +$440 | +$442 | +$432 | +$420 |
| $269 (-15%) | +$441 | +$473 | +$487 | +$452 |
| $285 (-10%) | +$374 | +$445 | +$539 | +$585 |
| $300 (-5%) โ target | +$218 | +$292 | +$418 | +$916 |
| $311 (-2%) | +$58 | +$108 | +$186 | +$278 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | -$51 | -$23 | +$12 | -$28 |
| $323 (+2%) | -$162 | -$158 | -$167 | -$276 |
| $333 (+5%) | -$326 | -$352 | -$411 | -$549 |
| $349 (+10%) | -$562 | -$615 | -$697 | -$802 |
| $364 (+15%) | -$730 | -$783 | -$845 | -$903 |
| $380 (+20%) | -$835 | -$874 | -$911 | -$937 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.