Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.3% vs 30d avg of 42.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.85 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $355 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$2,715 (211.3%) on $1,285 risked, vs +$3,815 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $31,685. Options give 17.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (45 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $355 by Oct 16
+$2,715
+211.3% on $1,285 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,285
Premium paid
Break-even
$327.85
+3.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
21%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.43 / -13.55 / 44.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 16 | Oct 1 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | -$1,271 | -$1,283 | -$1,285 | -$1,285 |
| $269 (-15%) | -$1,214 | -$1,262 | -$1,284 | -$1,285 |
| $285 (-10%) | -$1,030 | -$1,156 | -$1,258 | -$1,285 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$613 | -$825 | -$1,071 | -$1,285 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$213 | -$458 | -$766 | -$1,285 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$119 | -$133 | -$453 | -$1,100 |
| $323 (+2%) | +$503 | +$255 | -$51 | -$466 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$1,167 | +$942 | +$690 | +$484 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$2,461 | +$2,298 | +$2,151 | +$2,069 |
| $355 (+12%) โ target | +$3,039 | +$2,899 | +$2,783 | +$2,715 |
| $364 (+15%) | +$3,910 | +$3,800 | +$3,714 | +$3,653 |
| $380 (+20%) | +$5,440 | +$5,360 | +$5,295 | +$5,237 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.