Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.3% vs 30d avg of 42.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $316.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $355 by Oct 16: the long stock returns +$3,815 (12.0%) on $31,685 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Oct 16.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $355 by Oct 16
+$3,815
+12.0% on $31,685 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$31,685
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$316.85
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
21%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 1 | Oct 31 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | -$6,337 | -$6,337 | -$6,337 |
| $269 (-15%) | -$4,753 | -$4,753 | -$4,753 |
| $285 (-10%) | -$3,168 | -$3,168 | -$3,168 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$1,584 | -$1,584 | -$1,584 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$634 | -$634 | -$634 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $323 (+2%) | +$634 | +$634 | +$634 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$1,584 | +$1,584 | +$1,584 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$3,169 | +$3,169 | +$3,169 |
| $355 (+12%) โ target | +$3,815 | +$3,815 | +$3,815 |
| $364 (+15%) | +$4,753 | +$4,753 | +$4,753 |
| $380 (+20%) | +$6,337 | +$6,337 | +$6,337 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.