Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.3% vs 30d avg of 42.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $316.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $300 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.05 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $350 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$2,910 (9.1%) on $32,090 risked, vs +$3,315 (10.5%) for 100 shares on $31,685. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (45 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $350 by Oct 16
+$2,910
+9.1% on $32,090 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,090
Put floors you at $300
Break-even
$320.90
+1.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
76.02 / -8.91 / 36.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 16 | Oct 1 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | -$2,205 | -$2,186 | -$2,145 | -$2,090 |
| $269 (-15%) | -$2,051 | -$2,103 | -$2,128 | -$2,090 |
| $285 (-10%) | -$1,668 | -$1,808 | -$1,974 | -$2,090 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$961 | -$1,146 | -$1,395 | -$1,989 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$374 | -$550 | -$774 | -$1,039 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$79 | -$80 | -$265 | -$405 |
| $323 (+2%) | +$573 | +$438 | +$298 | +$229 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$1,378 | +$1,280 | +$1,199 | +$1,179 |
| $350 (+10%) โ target | +$2,975 | +$2,932 | +$2,911 | +$2,910 |
| $364 (+15%) | +$4,371 | +$4,353 | +$4,348 | +$4,348 |
| $380 (+20%) | +$5,938 | +$5,933 | +$5,932 | +$5,932 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.