Target Price Playground
AAPL
$316.85
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-36.3% vs 30d avg of 42.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
45d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.85 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.1 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $365 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns +$2,805 (127.8%) on $2,195 risked, vs +$4,815 (15.2%) for 100 shares on $31,685. Options give 8.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (45 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $365 by Oct 16
+$2,805
+127.8% on $2,195 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,195
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$336.95
+6.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
12%
IV-implied, 45d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.46 / -24.1 / 88.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 16 | Oct 1 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $253 (-20%) | +$3,810 | +$3,845 | +$3,899 | +$3,957 |
| $269 (-15%) | +$2,342 | +$2,303 | +$2,318 | +$2,373 |
| $285 (-10%) | +$1,123 | +$930 | +$784 | +$788 |
| $301 (-5%) | +$374 | +$7 | -$426 | -$796 |
| $311 (-2%) | +$223 | -$209 | -$767 | -$1,746 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$254 | -$192 | -$774 | -$2,010 |
| $323 (+2%) | +$388 | -$50 | -$605 | -$1,376 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$765 | +$374 | -$73 | -$426 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$1,770 | +$1,500 | +$1,264 | +$1,159 |
| $365 (+15%) โ target | +$3,139 | +$2,979 | +$2,868 | +$2,805 |
| $380 (+20%) | +$4,558 | +$4,457 | +$4,386 | +$4,327 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.