Target Price Playground
ADI
$370.24
๐ข
ADI IV: 40.6% โ LOW
(-61.0% vs 30d avg of 104.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.1 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $340 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.45 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $325 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$1,935 (181.7%) on $1,065 risked, vs $-4,524 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $37,024. Options give 14.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $325 by Oct 16
+$1,935
+181.7% on $1,065 risked
Max Profit
+$1,935
If the stock โค $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,065
Net debit
Break-even
$359.35
-2.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.61 / -3.75 / 9.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | +$1,541 | +$1,668 | +$1,840 | +$1,935 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$1,263 | +$1,390 | +$1,619 | +$1,935 |
| $325 (-12%) โ target | +$1,076 | +$1,183 | +$1,401 | +$1,935 |
| $333 (-10%) | +$915 | +$998 | +$1,178 | +$1,935 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$534 | +$543 | +$567 | +$762 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$307 | +$269 | +$185 | -$349 |
| $370 (0%) โ spot | +$161 | +$94 | -$52 | -$1,065 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$22 | -$70 | -$265 | -$1,065 |
| $389 (+5%) | -$170 | -$292 | -$530 | -$1,065 |
| $407 (+10%) | -$442 | -$586 | -$824 | -$1,065 |
| $426 (+15%) | -$650 | -$787 | -$971 | -$1,065 |
| $444 (+20%) | -$799 | -$914 | -$1,033 | -$1,065 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.