Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ADI
$370.24
๐ŸŸข
ADI IV: 40.6% โ€” LOW (-61.0% vs 30d avg of 104.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $390 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

56d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $340 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.45 ยท ฮ” -0.25
P&L at Expiry Now $370 Target $390 $259 $370 $481
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If ADI hits $390 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$845 (2.5%) on $-845 credit (max loss $33,155), vs +$1,976 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $37,024. Options give 0.5ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if ADI hits $390 by Oct 16
+$845
+2.5% on $33,155 max loss
Max Profit
+$845
If the stock โ‰ฅ $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$33,155
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$331.55
-10.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
25.34 / 15.24 / -47.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

ADI Price Today Sep 8 Sep 27 Oct 16 (exp)
$296 (-20%) -$3,895 -$3,721 -$3,554 -$3,536
$315 (-15%) -$2,589 -$2,316 -$1,972 -$1,685
$333 (-10%) -$1,532 -$1,199 -$732 +$167
$352 (-5%) -$730 -$387 +$86 +$845
$363 (-2%) -$359 -$34 +$391 +$845
$370 (0%) โ† spot -$154 +$152 +$533 +$845
$378 (+2%) +$22 +$305 +$636 +$845
$390 (+5%) โ† target +$257 +$497 +$743 +$845
$407 (+10%) +$488 +$665 +$812 +$845
$426 (+15%) +$642 +$761 +$836 +$845
$444 (+20%) +$734 +$808 +$843 +$845
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.