Target Price Playground
ADI
$370.24
๐ข
ADI IV: 40.6% โ LOW
(-61.0% vs 30d avg of 104.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.35 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $350 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.49 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $350 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,341 (90.2%) on $1,486 risked, vs $-2,024 (-5.5%) for 100 shares on $37,024. Options give 16.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $350 by Oct 16
+$1,341
+90.2% on $1,486 risked
Max Profit
+$1,290
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,459
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$375.48
+1.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-13.3 / 1.94 / 23.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | +$437 | +$484 | +$507 | +$428 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$406 | +$494 | +$602 | +$578 |
| $333 (-10%) | +$316 | +$428 | +$617 | +$898 |
| $350 (-5%) โ target | +$180 | +$289 | +$490 | +$1,400 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$48 | +$136 | +$297 | +$657 |
| $370 (0%) โ spot | -$37 | +$34 | +$158 | +$294 |
| $378 (+2%) | -$127 | -$75 | +$4 | -$23 |
| $389 (+5%) | -$266 | -$246 | -$235 | -$417 |
| $407 (+10%) | -$498 | -$528 | -$613 | -$884 |
| $426 (+15%) | -$715 | -$782 | -$918 | -$1,167 |
| $444 (+20%) | -$903 | -$991 | -$1,136 | -$1,327 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.