Target Price Playground
ADI
$370.24
๐ข
ADI IV: 40.6% โ LOW
(-61.0% vs 30d avg of 104.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.1 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $325 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$2,590 (135.6%) on $1,910 risked, vs $-4,524 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $37,024. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $325 by Oct 16
+$2,590
+135.6% on $1,910 risked
Max Profit
+$35,090
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,910
Premium paid
Break-even
$350.90
-5.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.95 / -18.99 / 57.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | +$5,437 | +$5,389 | +$5,394 | +$5,471 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$3,851 | +$3,706 | +$3,591 | +$3,620 |
| $325 (-12%) โ target | +$3,045 | +$2,840 | +$2,633 | +$2,590 |
| $333 (-10%) | +$2,447 | +$2,197 | +$1,909 | +$1,768 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$1,264 | +$930 | +$481 | -$83 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$666 | +$303 | -$206 | -$1,194 |
| $370 (0%) โ spot | +$315 | -$58 | -$585 | -$1,910 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$1 | -$375 | -$900 | -$1,910 |
| $389 (+5%) | -$406 | -$772 | -$1,265 | -$1,910 |
| $407 (+10%) | -$930 | -$1,250 | -$1,636 | -$1,910 |
| $426 (+15%) | -$1,292 | -$1,548 | -$1,807 | -$1,910 |
| $444 (+20%) | -$1,533 | -$1,721 | -$1,876 | -$1,910 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.