Target Price Playground
ADI
$370.24
๐ข
ADI IV: 40.6% โ LOW
(-61.0% vs 30d avg of 104.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $370.24 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.49 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $405 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$2,327 (6.1%) on $38,173 risked, vs +$3,476 (9.4%) for 100 shares on $37,024. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $405 by Oct 16
+$2,327
+6.1% on $38,173 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,173
Put floors you at $350
Break-even
$381.73
+3.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.35 / -17.05 / 48.81
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | -$2,982 | -$3,111 | -$3,207 | -$3,173 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$2,546 | -$2,780 | -$3,047 | -$3,173 |
| $333 (-10%) | -$1,878 | -$2,195 | -$2,624 | -$3,173 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$962 | -$1,316 | -$1,815 | -$3,000 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$296 | -$648 | -$1,133 | -$1,889 |
| $370 (0%) โ spot | +$192 | -$150 | -$605 | -$1,149 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$712 | +$387 | -$27 | -$409 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$1,550 | +$1,258 | +$917 | +$702 |
| $405 (+9%) โ target | +$2,877 | +$2,643 | +$2,412 | +$2,327 |
| $426 (+15%) | +$4,709 | +$4,549 | +$4,427 | +$4,405 |
| $444 (+20%) | +$6,429 | +$6,324 | +$6,262 | +$6,256 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.