Target Price Playground
ADI
$370.24
๐ข
ADI IV: 40.6% โ LOW
(-61.0% vs 30d avg of 104.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $425 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $370 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.4 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.1 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $425 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns +$1,250 (29.4%) on $4,250 risked, vs +$5,476 (14.8%) for 100 shares on $37,024. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $425 by Oct 16
+$1,250
+29.4% on $4,250 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,250
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$412.50
+11.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.18 / -39.94 / 114.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | +$3,317 | +$3,140 | +$3,064 | +$3,131 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$1,997 | +$1,625 | +$1,309 | +$1,280 |
| $333 (-10%) | +$1,041 | +$458 | -$203 | -$572 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$525 | -$224 | -$1,209 | -$2,423 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$441 | -$368 | -$1,472 | -$3,534 |
| $370 (0%) โ spot | +$479 | -$350 | -$1,489 | -$4,226 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$590 | -$243 | -$1,380 | -$3,486 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$887 | +$74 | -$999 | -$2,375 |
| $407 (+10%) | +$1,691 | +$969 | +$111 | -$524 |
| $425 (+15%) โ target | +$2,765 | +$2,166 | +$1,551 | +$1,250 |
| $444 (+20%) | +$4,188 | +$3,729 | +$3,333 | +$3,179 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.