Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 63.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $185 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.25 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $170 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.36 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $160 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$811 (117.7%) on $689 risked, vs $-2,328 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $18,328. Options give 9.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $160 by Sep 18
+$811
+117.7% on $689 risked
Max Profit
+$811
If the stock โค $170 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$689
Net debit
Break-even
$178.11
-2.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-13.04 / -1.33 / 1.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | +$516 | +$578 | +$685 | +$811 |
| $156 (-15%) | +$405 | +$455 | +$558 | +$811 |
| $160 (-13%) โ target | +$350 | +$391 | +$481 | +$811 |
| $165 (-10%) | +$283 | +$312 | +$380 | +$811 |
| $174 (-5%) | +$157 | +$159 | +$170 | +$399 |
| $180 (-2%) | +$82 | +$67 | +$41 | -$150 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | +$33 | +$7 | -$43 | -$517 |
| $187 (+2%) | -$15 | -$51 | -$124 | -$689 |
| $192 (+5%) | -$84 | -$134 | -$235 | -$689 |
| $202 (+10%) | -$191 | -$260 | -$389 | -$689 |
| $211 (+15%) | -$285 | -$365 | -$502 | -$689 |
| $220 (+20%) | -$366 | -$450 | -$579 | -$689 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.