Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 63.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $185 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.2 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $200 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.07 ยท ฮ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $205 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$887 (144.7%) on $613 risked, vs +$2,172 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $18,328. Options give 12.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $205 by Sep 18
+$887
+144.7% on $613 risked
Max Profit
+$887
If the stock โฅ $200 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$613
Net debit
Break-even
$191.13
+4.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.75 / -0.78 / -1.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | -$443 | -$500 | -$576 | -$613 |
| $156 (-15%) | -$361 | -$421 | -$520 | -$613 |
| $165 (-10%) | -$264 | -$317 | -$422 | -$613 |
| $174 (-5%) | -$155 | -$192 | -$277 | -$613 |
| $180 (-2%) | -$87 | -$110 | -$171 | -$613 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | -$40 | -$54 | -$95 | -$613 |
| $187 (+2%) | +$7 | +$3 | -$17 | -$418 |
| $192 (+5%) | +$76 | +$88 | +$103 | +$131 |
| $202 (+10%) | +$189 | +$226 | +$296 | +$887 |
| $205 (+12%) โ target | +$229 | +$275 | +$362 | +$887 |
| $211 (+15%) | +$295 | +$353 | +$466 | +$887 |
| $220 (+20%) | +$392 | +$466 | +$602 | +$887 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.