Target Price Playground
CRWD
$242.49
๐ก
CRWD IV: 64.0% โ NORMAL
(-5.2% vs 30d avg of 67.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.43 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $260 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.2 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $270 by Nov 20: the bull call spread returns +$1,077 (116.7%) on $923 risked, vs +$2,751 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $24,249. Options give 10.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $270 by Nov 20
+$1,077
+116.7% on $923 risked
Max Profit
+$1,077
If the stock โฅ $260 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$923
Net debit
Break-even
$249.23
+2.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.92 / -0.49 / -2.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$630 | -$705 | -$828 | -$923 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$514 | -$585 | -$724 | -$923 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$384 | -$440 | -$567 | -$923 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$244 | -$276 | -$361 | -$923 |
| $238 (-2%) | -$158 | -$173 | -$221 | -$923 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$101 | -$103 | -$124 | -$674 |
| $247 (+2%) | -$43 | -$33 | -$26 | -$189 |
| $255 (+5%) | +$41 | +$70 | +$120 | +$538 |
| $267 (+10%) | +$178 | +$236 | +$349 | +$1,077 |
| $270 (+11%) โ target | +$213 | +$278 | +$406 | +$1,077 |
| $279 (+15%) | +$306 | +$387 | +$548 | +$1,077 |
| $291 (+20%) | +$422 | +$521 | +$707 | +$1,077 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.