Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 63.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $185 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.25 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $175 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $175 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$903 (104.4%) on $865 risked, vs $-828 (-4.5%) for 100 shares on $18,328. Options give 23.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $175 by Sep 18
+$903
+104.4% on $865 risked
Max Profit
+$901
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$752
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$194.56
+6.15% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-7.46 / 2.5 / 7.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | +$162 | +$208 | +$255 | +$200 |
| $156 (-15%) | +$150 | +$212 | +$303 | +$338 |
| $165 (-10%) | +$120 | +$191 | +$314 | +$558 |
| $175 (-5%) โ target | +$69 | +$139 | +$267 | +$913 |
| $180 (-2%) | +$40 | +$105 | +$225 | +$658 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | +$14 | +$74 | +$184 | +$474 |
| $187 (+2%) | -$13 | +$41 | +$136 | +$307 |
| $192 (+5%) | -$56 | -$14 | +$55 | +$87 |
| $202 (+10%) | -$134 | -$113 | -$92 | -$208 |
| $211 (+15%) | -$214 | -$215 | -$240 | -$423 |
| $220 (+20%) | -$293 | -$315 | -$377 | -$575 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.