Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 63.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $185 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.2 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $205 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$180 (9.9%) on $1,820 risked, vs +$2,172 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $18,328. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $205 by Sep 18
+$180
+9.9% on $1,820 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,820
Premium paid
Break-even
$203.20
+10.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.61 / -17.65 / 28.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | -$1,440 | -$1,616 | -$1,771 | -$1,820 |
| $156 (-15%) | -$1,212 | -$1,445 | -$1,688 | -$1,820 |
| $165 (-10%) | -$909 | -$1,193 | -$1,526 | -$1,820 |
| $174 (-5%) | -$526 | -$848 | -$1,253 | -$1,820 |
| $180 (-2%) | -$259 | -$596 | -$1,029 | -$1,820 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | -$66 | -$409 | -$853 | -$1,820 |
| $187 (+2%) | +$140 | -$208 | -$657 | -$1,625 |
| $192 (+5%) | +$469 | +$120 | -$325 | -$1,076 |
| $202 (+10%) | +$1,072 | +$734 | +$319 | -$159 |
| $205 (+12%) โ target | +$1,311 | +$979 | +$582 | +$180 |
| $211 (+15%) | +$1,735 | +$1,418 | +$1,055 | +$757 |
| $220 (+20%) | +$2,450 | +$2,162 | +$1,859 | +$1,674 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.