Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 63.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $185 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.25 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $160 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$675 (37.0%) on $1,825 risked, vs $-2,328 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $18,328. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $160 by Sep 18
+$675
+37.0% on $1,825 risked
Max Profit
+$16,675
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,825
Premium paid
Break-even
$166.75
-9.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.75 / -15.71 / 28.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | +$2,270 | +$2,135 | +$2,021 | +$2,013 |
| $156 (-15%) | +$1,581 | +$1,389 | +$1,187 | +$1,096 |
| $160 (-13%) โ target | +$1,290 | +$1,073 | +$829 | +$675 |
| $165 (-10%) | +$969 | +$725 | +$433 | +$180 |
| $174 (-5%) | +$434 | +$153 | -$211 | -$737 |
| $180 (-2%) | +$152 | -$144 | -$536 | -$1,286 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | -$22 | -$324 | -$727 | -$1,653 |
| $187 (+2%) | -$183 | -$490 | -$898 | -$1,825 |
| $192 (+5%) | -$403 | -$711 | -$1,115 | -$1,825 |
| $202 (+10%) | -$717 | -$1,014 | -$1,388 | -$1,825 |
| $211 (+15%) | -$970 | -$1,246 | -$1,568 | -$1,825 |
| $220 (+20%) | -$1,172 | -$1,419 | -$1,681 | -$1,825 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.