Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 63.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $183.28 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $205 by Sep 18: the long stock returns +$2,172 (11.9%) on $18,328 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Sep 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $205 by Sep 18
+$2,172
+11.9% on $18,328 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$18,328
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$183.28
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 25 | Sep 24 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | -$3,666 | -$3,666 | -$3,666 |
| $156 (-15%) | -$2,749 | -$2,749 | -$2,749 |
| $165 (-10%) | -$1,833 | -$1,833 | -$1,833 |
| $174 (-5%) | -$916 | -$916 | -$916 |
| $180 (-2%) | -$367 | -$367 | -$367 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $187 (+2%) | +$367 | +$367 | +$367 |
| $192 (+5%) | +$916 | +$916 | +$916 |
| $202 (+10%) | +$1,833 | +$1,833 | +$1,833 |
| $205 (+12%) โ target | +$2,172 | +$2,172 | +$2,172 |
| $211 (+15%) | +$2,749 | +$2,749 | +$2,749 |
| $220 (+20%) | +$3,666 | +$3,666 | +$3,666 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.