Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 63.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $183.28 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $200 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$312 (1.6%) on $19,688 risked, vs +$1,672 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $18,328. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $200 by Sep 18
+$312
+1.6% on $19,688 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,188
Put floors you at $175
Break-even
$196.88
+7.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.95 / -14.85 / 27.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | -$1,750 | -$1,928 | -$2,111 | -$2,188 |
| $156 (-15%) | -$1,451 | -$1,680 | -$1,954 | -$2,188 |
| $165 (-10%) | -$1,069 | -$1,336 | -$1,682 | -$2,188 |
| $174 (-5%) | -$604 | -$891 | -$1,274 | -$2,188 |
| $180 (-2%) | -$287 | -$579 | -$964 | -$1,727 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | -$61 | -$352 | -$732 | -$1,360 |
| $187 (+2%) | +$177 | -$110 | -$480 | -$993 |
| $192 (+5%) | +$552 | +$274 | -$71 | -$444 |
| $200 (+9%) โ target | +$1,106 | +$846 | +$545 | +$312 |
| $211 (+15%) | +$1,956 | +$1,732 | +$1,502 | +$1,389 |
| $220 (+20%) | +$2,727 | +$2,537 | +$2,364 | +$2,306 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.