Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 63.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $185 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.2 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $185 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.25 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $210 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns $-1,145 (-31.4%) on $3,645 risked, vs +$2,672 (14.6%) for 100 shares on $18,328. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $210 by Sep 18
$-1,145
-31.4% on $3,645 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,645
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$148.55
-18.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.85 / -33.36 / 56.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | +$830 | +$518 | +$250 | +$193 |
| $156 (-15%) | +$370 | -$56 | -$501 | -$724 |
| $165 (-10%) | +$60 | -$467 | -$1,092 | -$1,640 |
| $174 (-5%) | -$92 | -$695 | -$1,464 | -$2,557 |
| $180 (-2%) | -$108 | -$741 | -$1,565 | -$3,106 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | -$87 | -$734 | -$1,581 | -$3,473 |
| $187 (+2%) | -$43 | -$697 | -$1,554 | -$3,450 |
| $192 (+5%) | +$66 | -$590 | -$1,440 | -$2,901 |
| $202 (+10%) | +$356 | -$280 | -$1,069 | -$1,984 |
| $210 (+15%) โ target | +$726 | +$129 | -$566 | -$1,145 |
| $220 (+20%) | +$1,278 | +$744 | +$178 | -$151 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.