Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CSCO hits $120 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$314 (3.1%) on $-314 credit (max loss $10,186), vs +$401 (3.5%) for 100 shares on $11,599. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CSCO is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CSCO Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $93 (-20%) | -$1,033 | -$975 | -$919 | -$907 |
| $99 (-15%) | -$633 | -$544 | -$435 | -$327 |
| $104 (-10%) | -$318 | -$213 | -$73 | +$253 |
| $110 (-5%) | -$86 | +$17 | +$148 | +$314 |
| $114 (-2%) | +$17 | +$111 | +$222 | +$314 |
| $116 (0%) โ spot | +$73 | +$159 | +$255 | +$314 |
| $118 (+2%) | +$120 | +$198 | +$277 | +$314 |
| $120 (+3%) โ target | +$149 | +$220 | +$288 | +$314 |
| $122 (+5%) | +$175 | +$240 | +$296 | +$314 |
| $128 (+10%) | +$238 | +$281 | +$310 | +$314 |
| $133 (+15%) | +$274 | +$300 | +$313 | +$314 |
| $139 (+20%) | +$293 | +$309 | +$314 | +$314 |