Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.2% โ LOW
(-39.2% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $29.7 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $285 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.19 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $275 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$1,349 (117.3%) on $1,151 risked, vs $-3,553 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 10.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $275 by Oct 16
+$1,349
+117.3% on $1,151 risked
Max Profit
+$1,349
If the stock โค $285 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,151
Net debit
Break-even
$298.49
-3.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-13.42 / -2.07 / 4.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | +$809 | +$903 | +$1,084 | +$1,349 |
| $264 (-15%) | +$624 | +$695 | +$853 | +$1,349 |
| $275 (-11%) โ target | +$482 | +$529 | +$643 | +$1,349 |
| $279 (-10%) | +$424 | +$459 | +$549 | +$1,349 |
| $295 (-5%) | +$220 | +$212 | +$207 | +$349 |
| $304 (-2%) | +$100 | +$66 | +$1 | -$583 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | +$21 | -$29 | -$131 | -$1,151 |
| $317 (+2%) | -$55 | -$121 | -$257 | -$1,151 |
| $326 (+5%) | -$166 | -$252 | -$430 | -$1,151 |
| $342 (+10%) | -$335 | -$449 | -$669 | -$1,151 |
| $357 (+15%) | -$485 | -$615 | -$846 | -$1,151 |
| $373 (+20%) | -$614 | -$750 | -$967 | -$1,151 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.