Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $325 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$1,819 (6.8%) on $-1,819 credit (max loss $26,681), vs +$1,447 (4.7%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$2,940 | -$2,588 | -$2,157 | -$1,839 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$2,001 | -$1,580 | -$1,016 | -$286 |
| $279 (-10%) | -$1,203 | -$741 | -$96 | +$1,267 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$540 | -$66 | +$593 | +$1,819 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$202 | +$267 | +$904 | +$1,819 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$461 | +$1,074 | +$1,819 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$185 | +$635 | +$1,218 | +$1,819 |
| $325 (+5%) โ target | +$405 | +$836 | +$1,372 | +$1,819 |
| $342 (+10%) | +$772 | +$1,154 | +$1,582 | +$1,819 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$1,036 | +$1,365 | +$1,694 | +$1,819 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$1,238 | +$1,514 | +$1,755 | +$1,819 |