Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.2% โ LOW
(-39.2% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $40.6 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $295 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.49 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $295 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,381 (76.3%) on $1,811 risked, vs $-1,553 (-5.0%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 15.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $295 by Oct 16
+$1,381
+76.3% on $1,811 risked
Max Profit
+$1,347
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,497
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$325.70
+4.89% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
84%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-6.69 / 3.64 / 14.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$135 | -$53 | +$42 | -$51 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$130 | -$18 | +$158 | +$267 |
| $279 (-10%) | -$155 | -$26 | +$207 | +$728 |
| $295 (-5%) โ target | -$210 | -$79 | +$168 | +$1,346 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$256 | -$132 | +$102 | +$862 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$291 | -$174 | +$42 | +$571 |
| $317 (+2%) | -$329 | -$222 | -$29 | +$305 |
| $326 (+5%) | -$392 | -$302 | -$152 | -$50 |
| $342 (+10%) | -$507 | -$452 | -$383 | -$535 |
| $357 (+15%) | -$631 | -$612 | -$624 | -$904 |
| $373 (+20%) | -$757 | -$773 | -$851 | -$1,176 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.