Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.2% โ LOW
(-39.2% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $310 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $29.8 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $350 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$1,020 (34.2%) on $2,980 risked, vs +$3,947 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $350 by Oct 16
+$1,020
+34.2% on $2,980 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,980
Premium paid
Break-even
$339.80
+9.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.69 / -28.3 / 47.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$2,205 | -$2,532 | -$2,855 | -$2,980 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$1,777 | -$2,195 | -$2,674 | -$2,980 |
| $279 (-10%) | -$1,222 | -$1,717 | -$2,344 | -$2,980 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$536 | -$1,087 | -$1,823 | -$2,980 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$63 | -$634 | -$1,409 | -$2,980 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | +$278 | -$302 | -$1,090 | -$2,927 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$637 | +$53 | -$738 | -$2,306 |
| $326 (+5%) | +$1,212 | +$629 | -$151 | -$1,374 |
| $342 (+10%) | +$2,255 | +$1,691 | +$969 | +$178 |
| $350 (+13%) โ target | +$2,861 | +$2,315 | +$1,640 | +$1,020 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$3,394 | +$2,866 | +$2,234 | +$1,731 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$4,615 | +$4,135 | +$3,604 | +$3,284 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.