Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.2% โ LOW
(-39.2% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $29.7 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $275 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$530 (17.8%) on $2,970 risked, vs $-3,553 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $275 by Oct 16
+$530
+17.8% on $2,970 risked
Max Profit
+$28,030
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,970
Premium paid
Break-even
$280.30
-9.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.55 / -25.53 / 47.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | +$3,750 | +$3,491 | +$3,240 | +$3,188 |
| $264 (-15%) | +$2,625 | +$2,275 | +$1,868 | +$1,635 |
| $275 (-11%) โ target | +$1,901 | +$1,494 | +$980 | +$530 |
| $279 (-10%) | +$1,627 | +$1,200 | +$645 | +$82 |
| $295 (-5%) | +$760 | +$278 | -$386 | -$1,470 |
| $304 (-2%) | +$302 | -$201 | -$903 | -$2,402 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | +$21 | -$490 | -$1,206 | -$2,970 |
| $317 (+2%) | -$240 | -$756 | -$1,475 | -$2,970 |
| $326 (+5%) | -$597 | -$1,112 | -$1,819 | -$2,970 |
| $342 (+10%) | -$1,107 | -$1,602 | -$2,251 | -$2,970 |
| $357 (+15%) | -$1,521 | -$1,980 | -$2,540 | -$2,970 |
| $373 (+20%) | -$1,852 | -$2,264 | -$2,722 | -$2,970 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.