Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.2% โ LOW
(-39.2% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $310.53 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $350 by Oct 16: the long stock returns +$3,947 (12.7%) on $31,053 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Oct 16.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $350 by Oct 16
+$3,947
+12.7% on $31,053 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$31,053
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$310.53
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 20 | Oct 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$6,211 | -$6,211 | -$6,211 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$4,658 | -$4,658 | -$4,658 |
| $279 (-10%) | -$3,105 | -$3,105 | -$3,105 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$1,553 | -$1,553 | -$1,553 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$621 | -$621 | -$621 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$621 | +$621 | +$621 |
| $326 (+5%) | +$1,553 | +$1,553 | +$1,553 |
| $342 (+10%) | +$3,105 | +$3,105 | +$3,105 |
| $350 (+13%) โ target | +$3,947 | +$3,947 | +$3,947 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$4,658 | +$4,658 | +$4,658 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$6,211 | +$6,211 | +$6,211 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.