Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.2% โ LOW
(-39.2% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $310.53 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $295 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.49 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $340 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$698 (2.1%) on $33,302 risked, vs +$2,947 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $340 by Oct 16
+$698
+2.1% on $33,302 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,802
Put floors you at $295
Break-even
$333.02
+7.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.92 / -24.69 / 45.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$2,945 | -$3,263 | -$3,621 | -$3,802 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$2,411 | -$2,809 | -$3,318 | -$3,802 |
| $279 (-10%) | -$1,739 | -$2,195 | -$2,820 | -$3,802 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$933 | -$1,420 | -$2,100 | -$3,802 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$388 | -$879 | -$1,562 | -$2,870 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$490 | -$1,162 | -$2,249 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$406 | -$78 | -$732 | -$1,628 |
| $326 (+5%) | +$1,047 | +$578 | -$35 | -$696 |
| $340 (+9%) โ target | +$2,073 | +$1,637 | +$1,105 | +$698 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$3,427 | +$3,043 | +$2,623 | +$2,409 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$4,729 | +$4,399 | +$4,077 | +$3,962 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.